The Power of the Few

(And the Convexity of Returns)

Delivered March 28, 2025 @ 5:00pm ET

Weather in Bloomington, Indiana - Sunny & Wind Gusts, 230 C / 740 F

Table of Contents

Solid 462. I only post real numbers.

My name is Gerry Hays, and for lack of a better description, I’m the custodian and convener of Doriot, a movement to break open the gates of venture and expand innovation and wealth beyond an elite few.

I’ve been in the game of venture as a founder, investor, researcher, inventor, author, game designer, and professor. I’ve built companies and developed a global venture portfolio entirely from the great state of Indiana, all while teaching over 6,000 undergraduates and MBAs at Indiana University, as well as in Croatia, Hong Kong, Slovenia, and Singapore.

The Week in Democratize Venture

  • On March 25, the Congressional Committee on Financial Services held a hearing titled "Beyond Silicon Valley: Expanding Access to Capital Across America." Witnesses emphasized the need for a more inclusive financial ecosystem that supports entrepreneurs outside traditional tech hubs.

  • Steve Case put it well: “The next wave of American entrepreneurship is happening everywhere...”

  • They also touched on modernizing the accredited investor definition, balancing capital formation with investor protection, and ensuring equity in how venture capital is distributed.

Latest Doriot Updates

VentureStaking™ - an unheard-of approach to startup investing is being revealed on April 15, 2025 at noon ET. Here are the latest updates.

  • 230 across the globe have registered for the live event, 142% growth over last week. For those of you how have registered for the reveal, invitations are coming out next week.

  • I pushed out a Poll on LinkedIN regarding our basic premise for VentureStaking(TM) and it looks like most agree with us.

  • We've been providing high-level briefings to stress-test our assumptions and, based on the feedback, all systems are a go. We still have a ton of work ahead of us in the next two and a half weeks, but we're feeling great and increasingly in flow each day. I would love to say that this is coming from me, but in reality, it's coming through me. After seven years and 25,000 hours of knocking on the same door, it's finally opening, and we are very much looking forward to revealing what's behind it.

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”

This quote hits home like no other. In perhaps my darkest, most vulnerable moment at the New Warrior Training, I heard this quote — not just once, but repeated again and again. Today, these words feel especially prescient given the current state of our political and economic affairs.

Just this week:

  • Block (formerly Square) is laying off 941 people.

  • Facebook is planning to lay off 5% of its workforce.

  • Amazon is laying off 14,000 middle managers (to "increase efficiency").

  • Two-thirds of CFOs believe a recession is imminent.

And, wait for it:

Wall Street has just issued record bonuses, averaging $244,000 per person.

Meanwhile, our government continues to be hacked by Silicon Valley technocrats who believe they know better than the masses.

So, what should we do? The answer isn't fighting or protesting in the streets. The answer is innovation — building a new economic model resilient to the manipulations and games played by Washington D.C., Wall Street, and Silicon Valley. VentureStaking™ is both a movement and tangible platform designed explicitly to foster this new economic model by unleashing and capitalizing innovators who understand the power of collective prosperity and wealth-building.

All it takes is a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens to change the world. Are you one of them? I sure as hell am. Will you join us? All it requires is the decision — and the commitment — to strike when the time is right. And you'll know exactly when that moment arrives.

The Convexity of Returns

In last Friday’s newsletter, I discussed the power of Optionality when it comes to wealth building. This week, I want to discuss the Convexity of Returns.

When it comes to building wealth, the common advice is to save more, spend less, and maybe invest in an index fund. And while that’s a safe path, it’s not exactly the kind of strategy that builds generational wealth — especially if you’re starting young and hungry for exponential growth.

Here’s the truth: wealth doesn’t grow linearly. It grows convexly. That means small, smart bets — especially early on — can snowball into outsized returns if they’re made in the right direction. And nothing illustrates this better than aggregating equity in a growing, expanding company over time. Let’s make this real.

The Google Example

If you had bought just one share of Google stock on the first day of every month from its IPO in 2004 until now, you’d have invested about $24,800 in total.

Today, thanks to stock splits and massive growth, that simple, consistent buying would be worth over $1.19 million. You didn’t have to pick the “perfect” day to invest. You didn’t have to drop a huge lump sum. You just had to keep showing up.

That’s convexity: your return curve bends upwards, not because you made one huge bet, but because you stayed in the game and let growth do the work.

Now imagine being able to do something similar—but even earlier in the curve.

The Private Startup Example

Let’s say you invested just $250 at each funding round of a private startup:

  • Round 1: $10 million valuation

  • Round 2: $25 million valuation

  • Round 3: $50 million valuation

  • Round 4: $150 million valuation

That’s a total of $1,000 invested over time. Now fast forward: the company wins and exits at a $2.5 billion valuation. Here’s a summary of the ROI:

  • Round 1: $250 / $10M = 0.0025% ownership → $62,500 at exit

  • Round 2: $250 / $25M = 0.001% → $25,000 at exit

  • Round 3: $250 / $50M = 0.0005% → $12,500 at exit

  • Round 4: $250 / $150M ≈ 0.000167% → ~$4,175 at exit

Total Exit Value: ~$104,175

Even without accounting for dilution (which would reduce this somewhat), that’s a 100x return from a relatively modest $1,000 invested over time. Not bad. But more importantly, it shows the power of early-stage exposure: tiny ownership slivers in breakout companies can produce life-changing outcomes. That’s convexity in action.

Enter: VentureStaking™

This is why we built VentureStaking™. We’re not revealing all the mechanics just yet (that’s coming April 15), but here’s what matters now: it’s designed to make this kind of convex wealth creation not just possible — but accessible.

VentureStaking™ is about early positioning, optionality, and the ability to stay close to breakout opportunities — without needing millions to play the game.

So if you're young and thinking about how to build wealth, don’t just think about your salary. Think about your stake. Think about your access. Think about how to build position and presence in companies that are going somewhere — and how to hold on as they grow.

Convexity isn’t just math. It’s mindset. And it’s how the future is built.

Find out on April 15! Here’s my referral link to join the movement :)

Have a great weekend!

-gerry (gerry@doriot.com)

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